The Next Conservatism, Reform Conservatism

Conservatism is changing. The Reagan coalition is dying. What will come next?

Before we can look to the future we need to see where we've been. The Reagan coalition was built on certain issues:

1. Restoring American pride

2. Renewing America's economy

3. Rebuilding America's military

4. Defending America's traditional culture

This program brought together a broad coalition for conservatism.

1. Middle Class voters who enjoyed a renewed economy and a rebirth of American pride.

2. Wealthy voters whose taxes declined sharply.

3. Evangelical voters who found a cultural ally in the Republican party.

In 1994 Republicans added a new group to the coalition:

Voters committed to clean government.

They campaigned against Democratic corruption. Republicans proposed term limits, applying the law to corrupt politicians, cutting government fraud/waste and openness and honesty in government. These policies brought new voters into the Republican coalition. Voters who might not have agreed with conservatism but viewed Republicans as government reformers.

Simply speaking Republicans were united by an agenda of patriotism, economic renewal, military strength, traditional morality, and government reform.

This coalition was slowly dismantled from 2002 to 2006. Republicans became mired in scandal turning off the reform voters in the coalition. Tax rates fell so low that voters were more likely to worry about the cost of health care or oil. America's military was caught in a grinding war that turned off voters. The Republicans failure to defend traditional culture depressed social conservative voters.

The Republican coalition is in tatters and the old coalition can't be rebuilt as it was. Most voters care more about medical and oil costs than taxes. America's military has limited usefulness against terrorist networks.

A new conservatism needs to focus on what can be done. Conservatives should focus on government reform, honesty with voters, and clean candidates. Conservatives can address oil prices and health care costs with market-friendly government action. Conservatives can seek solutions to social issues in ways that unite voters. Conservatives can focus on securing America's borders and ports.

More than anything Conservatives need to take up the mantle of popular reform.

I believe that without a new agenda Conservatives will languish in the minority while Liberals pull America in a dangerous radical direction.

A medium-term scenario for politcal realignment

In 1992 the victory of a multilateralist Democrat over a multilateralist Republican seemed to suggest that a new consensus had emerged in the aftermath of the cold war.

America would have a fluid foreign policy where economic integration was pursued and rising threats were handled by assembling coalition with NATO, the UN or other broad groups of nations.

After January 2001 this policy seemed on the wane as a skeptic of US involvement had been elected. It was likely that America would fail to act in conflict resolution or in intervening in foreign hot spots. Multilateralism wasn't dead but it was going to be limited.

A few months later the US began a trajectory of shifting to multilateralism and then to thinly veiled unilateralism.

It is hard to tell who will win the election of 2008. My contention is that 2008 will not be an election of much change. Whoever is elected will likely have to face the lack of will in America and unrecoverable disasters in Afghanistan and Iraq.

If Republicans win in 2008 the full consequences of Iraq and Afghanistan will hobble the party for a generation. Democrats will likely return to power with a passive foreign policy that is multilateralism without teeth.

If a Democrat is elected in 2008 a more interesting scenario unfolds. Republicans will face a crisis of conscience. I suspect a isolationist populist wing will win the ultimate struggle and win in 2012 against beleaguered Democrats facing economic collapse and international crisis.

A generational repudiation of internationalism would likely be a wonderful thing for the US as Europe and China will face the strain of maintaining the fragile international order while the US grows fat keeping out of international problems. Such a result could also give totalitarians of various stripes the ability to extend their power around the world.