Reviving the Hamilton agenda

David Brooks attempted to tap into old fashioned conservatism via Alexander Hamilton.

I'm torn by such a comparison. Generally I view local governments as much more capable of real democracy than national governments. This leads me to desire strong states' rights which is antithetical to the strong central government of Hamilton.

However even there I'm divided. Today economic reality has made 50 completely independent economic policies unmanageable. So the federal government must assume a larger economic role than it was intended to.

Brooks seems to emphasize the use of government to correct the many market inefficiencies and failures. While most economists will admit the free market is flawed and sometimes inefficient, most also argue that government action is limited in its potential for good but unlimited in its potential for harm.

When the government gets involved in the economy there will always be winners and losers (sometimes the gains outweigh the losses, often they don't).

In my mind this requires vigilant careful political leadership that is willing to act but maintains stable and clear rules as much as possible.

In addition the federal government should be more strictly limited to those areas where national consistency and coordination are required.

In my opinion that implies a much different federal government. To describe what I believe the federal government should actually do, would take several posts.

Right makes Might

In 1860 Abraham Lincoln spoke at Cooper Institute in New York:

"Let us have faith that right makes might, and in that faith, let us, to the end, dare to do our duty as we understand it."

Moral conviction can give strength to the weakest of men.
Moral uncertainty can paralyze the strongest of men.

In times past men had a duty to strive for moral conviction. Each man had to be able to stand on what he believed.

The most reviled of men was the vacillating, self serving, coward who acted only out of convenience and desire. Men of no principle who catered only to common sentiments but never an unwavering belief.

This scoundrel of the past hasn't quite become a hero yet. Such characters are however accepted and tolerated.

Men are not naturally angelic or principled. Such virtues are taught and reinforced by a society that dares to judge based on a demanding morality.

Judgment today is often restricted to inconsequential things. Personal morality are often subjects, we strive to avoid.

We do this at the cost of silently encouraging immoral behavior and unprincipled lives of no great meaning.

The great need in the new century is not economic, humanitarian or political. The great need in the 21st century are for men and women who dare to judge others and dare to judge themselves. Men and women of principle are needed more than anything else to face the challenges of the future.

Decision time after Ames

This primary season I've waited relatively late to support a candidate and volunteer for their campaign.

So far I've only ruled out one Republican candidate from receiving my support (Rudy Giuliani).

I like Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and Duncan Hunter. I'm unsure of Fred Thompson. John McCain I can tolerate.

The other guys don't have what it takes to be President.

So after the Iowa Straw Poll in Ames I'm going to make a decision and support either Huckabee, Romney, Hunter, Thompson or (probably not) McCain.

Mid Month Delegate Count Update

Using my model to predict delegate totals (from available states) there's been some shifting since the state polls were entered on June 6th.

Here are the updated totals for each candidate:
Number in parenthesis is June 6th delegate count

605 (605) Rudy Giulaini
460 (407) John McCain
194 (191) Mitt Romney
165 (216) Fred Thompson
34 (34) Mike Huckabee

These mid-month results surprised me as Fred Thompson's delegate totals have declined as his national poll support has increased rapidly (5%). I think this primarily due to recent anomalous big state polling.

In addition John McCain's delegate totals based on state polls have shot up despite his 4% decline in national polls.

Either the states that have been polled are moving against national trends or these polls are wrong.

Hopefully by July 6th these variations will shake out when I create another delegate map and update the delegate totals.

The Personal Touch

In 1980 Reagan asked voters "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?"

He picked up a vital part of politics.

If you involve people personally you take a complicated, almost imaginary situation and make it real. You motivate voters that agreed with you and you win over voters that disagreed.

I'm not seeing much of a focus on reaching out to voters on the voter's terms.

Politicians are trying to get "right on the issues" and they're trying to appeal with soundbites but they're not actually listening to voters.

Politics has been reduced to a rich man's sport. Political figures are so disconnected from real life they can't even talk about what matters to average people.

2008 Primary Schedule is like 1988

For political junkies paying attention to the Presidential primaries, a big theme is "Super-Mega Tuesday changes everything".

This season's Republican primary schedule is not that different from 1988.

In 2008, 18 states are scheduled to vote on February 5th.

In 1988, 16 states voted on March 8th.

On February 5th, 2008 people are voting in states with 991 delegates (39% of total delegates).

On March 8th, 1988 people voted in states with 762 delegates (33% of total delegates)

Another similarity is the rivalry between Nevada and New Hampshire to see who goes first. In 1988 the Nevada caucus followed New Hampshire by 2 days.

Wyoming which is trying to go first this year also was pushing to the front of the pack in 1988 with the Wyoming Caucus occurring the day after the Iowa Caucus.

While the February 5th "Super Tuesday" could grow a bit more, it's unlikely to add more than 2-3% of the total delegates.

Unlike 1988 we don't have a Vice President running with the backing of most of the party and most Republican officials.

In 1988 Dole and Bush split primaries until March 8th when Bush carried every single state winning most of the delegates he would need for the Republican nomination. This essentially rapped up the race and unified the party behind Vice President Bush.

We will see if candidates can use the primary schedule to their advantage as George Bush did in 1988.

Delegate Map by State

I calculated delegate totals for each state (according to delegate selection rules and modeling where necessary). Then I shaded each state according to how many delegates each candidate received.

It's worth mentioning several caveats to this map:
1) Early states have an effect on later primaries. This map can't include that effect.
2) Some states haven't been polled since March. As polls are updated each month I'll update the map.
3) The polls were picked by on two factors: recent and reliable